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Design of the model of managing warfare below the threshold of armed response


A project of an integrated multi-level system that will operate in the "grey zone", combining military and non-military instruments to ensure national security, national interests of Ukraine, create a favourable international context and position Ukraine as a powerful and valuable player worldwide.


Military capabilities, which ensure the ability to physically defend one's territory and population, have been and remain the core of state security. However, modern confrontations are becoming increasingly complex and go beyond the physical dimension, blurring the lines between "peace" and "war", "partnership" and "competition". This requires a broader interpretation of security, forming a new paradigm of national security and a system for ensuring it.


MSA, together with Ukraine's security and defence institutions, has developed a draft integrated multi-level system that will operate in the "grey zone" - below the thresholds of open armed conflict - combining military and non-military tools to ensure national security, Ukraine's national interests, create a favourable international context and position Ukraine as a powerful and valuable player in the world.


Managing war in the "grey zone" involves strengthening the resilience of state systems and society, systematic and strategic use of diplomatic, economic, informational, and social levers of influence, and strengthening conventional military capabilities. The integrated approach promotes a connecting and horizontal vision of defence, intelligence, economic, trade, and information activities while linking critical elements of domestic policy to ensure a clear focus and coherent support for national interests and values.

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